Retail intelligence expert Springboard forecasts that over the crucial six-week Christmas trading period from Sunday 21 November to Saturday 4 January, footfall across all UK retail destinations will average -17% lower than 2019, continuing the current trajectory seen in September 2021 with footfall down -17.4%.
Widespread awareness amongst consumers of potential supply issues this Christmas is likely to lead to earlier festive purchasing in November to guarantee the availability of gifts. Springboard also predicts Black Friday will be more popular this year, with week 47 (week beginning 21 November) seeing a boost in footfall of +7.9%, and +6.5% in week 48, as shoppers take advantage of widespread discounting. This contrasts with the average uplift in footfall in Black Friday week of +5.1% between 2014 and 2019 and +1.7% in Black Friday week in both 2018 and 2019.
This year, high streets and shopping centres will drive the drop in UK footfall from 2019.
Over this six-week period, footfall will be -17.7% and -17.5% lower than 2019, respectively. In contrast in retail parks, which have been far more resilient throughout the pandemic, footfall will continue to strengthen averaging +5.5% higher than 2019 over the six-week period. Retail Parks are likely to be particularly strong over the last two weeks of the Christmas trading period. They are forecast to average +11.8% higher than 2019 with pre-Christmas food shopping in the week running up to Christmas.
Commenting is Diane Wehrle, Insights Director at Springboard. “Retail Parks will continue to increase their customer base this Christmas. This further boost over the trading period, to what is an already strong footfall base in retail parks, is likely to be a result of shoppers heading to larger stores where they feel safe. They also offer a wide range of products, are easy to access with free parking, and many of which provide convenient click and collect facilities.”
Footfall in large city centres will strengthen over the six-week Christmas period, overtaking smaller high streets.
This will contrast with UK footfall trends seen throughout the pandemic. Consumers are seeking out the Christmas shopping experience they missed last year. Footfall increases from week to week will be greater in regional cities than in market towns in each of the six weeks. This will mean the gap in footfall from 2019 in regional cities will average -15.8% versus -16.9% in market towns. The attractiveness of larger city centres to consumers at Christmas shows in the forecast uplift from 2020 of +140.3%. This is in comparison to +47.5% in market towns over the six weeks.
UK footfall is likely to continue to rise into the week of Christmas (week 51) by +6.5% from the week before. With Christmas Day falling on a weekend this year, a longer final trading week is possible. It also enables consumers to shop in-store in the immediate days leading up to Christmas.
The week post-Christmas kicks off with Boxing Day on Sunday.
Springboard highlights footfall has declined on Boxing Day every year since 2016; dropping by -8.6% in 2019 from Boxing Day in 2018. This is unlikely to change this year. Footfall is generally lower on Sunday due to reduced hours. Plus, several leading retailers have already announced that they will not be opening. This will lead consumers to defer trips and use this day to spend with family.
In the week post-Christmas, footfall in high streets and shopping centres will drop by around -20%. This level of decline post-Christmas has been a trend for the past decade. However, grocery shopping and discounting post-Boxing Day will continue to drive footfall into retail parks in the week following Christmas.
Wehrle continues; “This year, the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, along with the supply issue associated with the shortage of HGV drivers that have already affected stock in food stores and led to the recent fuel crisis, will, unfortunately, cause further issues for bricks and mortar retailers over the Christmas trading period. In addition, the end of the furlough scheme coinciding with recent increases in energy prices are likely to further dampen footfall as household spend on Christmas gifts is constrained and family experiences are favoured.
“Although footfall will be +80.9% stronger in comparison to 2020, this result is distorted. Last year retailers were forced to close their doors for four weeks from the beginning of November. This overlapped with two of the six-week Christmas trading period. Whilst footfall will rise over the Christmas trading period, it will remain lower than pre-pandemic levels; part of which is the long-term shift of some spend online which has impacted footfall by around -1.5% per annum for the past decade.”
