Despite a particularly tough year, Mintel forecasts some Christmas cheer for Britain’s retailers. The latest research predicts that December’s retail sales will reach £48.7 billion. This is a respectable 3.8% increase in comparison to last December when sales hit £46.9 billion.
Furthermore, sales through non-food retailers this December are expected to reach £23.9 billion. This includes £4.2 billion from online sales generated by physical stores. In the battle between the clicks and bricks, Mintel estimates online-only retailers will account for £6.0 billion worth of sales.
Mintel forecasts total online sales this December will be worth £11.6 billion, accounting for 23.7% of all retail sales.
Commenting is Nick Carroll, associate director of retail research at Mintel. “We’re forecasting that December will result in steady growth for the retail sector. In normal circumstances, with the current low unemployment and solid wage growth, this would point to an even better Christmas than in past years.
“However, this has, of course, been far from an ideal run-up; with Brexit uncertainty dragging on and an election now a late additional hurdle for the sector to pass and process before the big day.
“Despite this, the past few festive periods have shown that customers can be resilient in the face of uncertain times. We believe underlying demand will hold up reasonably well. Customers will, of course, be looking for value. Plus, with fewer days between Black Friday and Christmas this year, retailers’ margins may be particularly stretched.
Over half of shoppers think visiting stores is a good way to get into the festive experience.
“The run-up to Christmas is a great opportunity to get shoppers into stores and enthused about the physical shopping experience. Those that can provide valued experiences whilst tapping into other underlying trends, such as local sourcing and ethical production, combined with attracting value-conscious shoppers, put themselves in a good position this festive season.”
The Black Friday shopping frenzy
Black Friday is now fully ingrained in the retail calendar. According to Mintel, last year almost two in five (39%) British consumers made a purchase during the Black Friday promotions.
Avoiding the retail rush, 86% of Black Friday shoppers bought online, while just under three in ten (29%) bought in-store. Amazon was the most popular destination, with 42% of Black Friday buyers shopping with the online giant during the event.
Overall, electrical items were the most popular purchases, bought by 49% of Black Friday shoppers. This was followed by clothing and footwear (38%) and beauty and fragrance (25%).
39% of consumers bought something during last year’s Black Friday promotions.
Seven in ten (67%) Black Friday shoppers bought something as a Christmas gift. While six in ten (58%) say they delayed planned purchases until the event; this highlights how disruptive Black Friday can be to trading either side of the sales bonanza.
Carroll continues: “Black Friday is here to stay and we expect it to be potentially the biggest it’s ever been in the UK. Unlike in recent years, Black Friday 2019 falls right at the end of the month; after payday and less than four weeks before Christmas. This makes perfect timing to capitalise on shoppers who are looking to save during this uncertain period.
“Whilst we would expect certain key players to continue to abstain from the event, given the online-only retailers’ enthusiasm for Black Friday, for many the fear of losing sales in today’s highly competitive market means they have to be involved.
“There are a number of retailers already running their Black Friday promotions, hoping to get out ahead of the pack and capture demand before the event gets into full swing.”
