Retail expert Springboard is forecasting UK footfall will rise by +19.7% this week following ‘Freedom Day’ today, as Covid restrictions such as face coverings and social distancing are no longer mandatory in England.
Whilst the removal of restrictions in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland will not be as comprehensive as in England, the fact footfall in England accounts for around 85% of all footfall in the UK will drive an uplift in overall shopper activity.
Latest insight from Springboard reveals footfall will peak throughout the first weekend of freedom; rises of +32.2% on Friday 23 July and +39.5% on Saturday 24 July. Over the week, footfall across all UK retail destinations could be only -20.1% below the same week in 2019.
Footfall increases are forecast to vary across the three key retail destination types.
High streets will see an increase of +25%. Footfall will be supported by more customers allowed in restaurants, coffee shops, and pubs. This is due to the removal of social distancing measures that limit venue capacities.
However, with 74% of all footfall occurring between 6am and 5pm, and a further 16% between 5pm and 8pm, the higher volume during daytime and early evening will fuel this increase rather than night time footfall, which is typically driven by nightclubs and bars.
In shopping centres, footfall is expected to rise by +18% over the week. This rise will be more modest. Although home to hospitality outlets, they don’t tend to have an active evening/late-night economy.
The rise in footfall in retail parks is expected to be lowest at +10%. Customer numbers in these destinations have already bounced back to a greater extent than in the other two destination types.
The anticipated uplift following Phase 3 of the Government’s easing of restrictions is forecast to be significantly greater than the +1% rise when indoor hospitality reopened in May 2021 as phase 2.
However, retail stores are already trading and indoor hospitality is operational. Footfall will, therefore, not see the same rise of +87.8% during phase 1, when non-essential retail reopened in April 2021.
Springboard also highlights that ‘Freedom Day’ coincides with the end of the school year.
As summer holidays commence across the UK, footfall is expected to gain momentum as the weeks progress; particularly if the weather is warm and dry and many Brits enjoy a summer staycation.
Springboard forecasts a week-on-week rise of +8.1% on Monday 19 July to +39.5% on Saturday 24 July. In high streets, the gain in footfall on Saturday is expected to reach +52% from the week before. Shopping centres, meanwhile, are forecast +42%.
Commenting is Diane Wehrle, insights director at Springboard. “The long-awaited ‘Freedom Day’ on Monday will see footfall bounce back across the UK to a more significant magnitude than when indoor hospitality reopened in May, with rises seen across all three retail destinations.
“With summer holidays commencing and many opting for a summer staycation in the UK, footfall will continue to rise throughout July and into August as many look to enjoy the good weather.
“Despite the removal of Covid restrictions, the recently increased infection rate is likely to make some shoppers more cautious about venturing out into what could be busy shopping environments. Additionally, many workers have not yet returned to their offices and are unlikely to do so full time. This particularly impacts larger towns and cities where the volumes of footfall are greatest.”
